MLB · resolved market
Will the New York Yankees win the American League?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd37d456955bccbe01af32da32ce6ddeafddc03085055e20246d159af29afaebb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 45c | 1,205$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.15 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 55c | 1,153$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.05 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 61c | 1,100$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 51c | 1,097$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.69 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 67c | 750.17$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Yes | 66c | 565.87$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.05 | 133 | 59.4%79 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 28c | 323.68$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 270$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 28c | 267.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…b428backed No | 9c | 169.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 43c | 150.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…90b1backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…7227backed Yes | 46c | 122.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 66c | 122$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6219backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…d3d2backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb317…5059backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…6ed7backed Yes | 46c | 60.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af5…7d3ebacked Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…3f6abacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ab…2c73backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…1d1ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…e966backed Yes | 54c | 39.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…a22cbacked Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…fe4dbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c3…484cbacked Yes | 66c | 29.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e66…d73dbacked Yes | 58c | 27.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0c…c494backed Yes | 79c | 22.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…682bbacked Yes | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…a6b6backed No | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…d745backed Yes | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New York Yankees win the American League?this page
- Will the Cleveland Guardians win the American League?No won
- Will the Detroit Tigers win the American League?No won
- Will the Houston Astros win the American League?No won
- Will the Kansas City Royals win the American League?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.