MLB · resolved market
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the American League?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e9b760c82861c841ae0a6e986220e3128a8df9c2060f72b199591d287f4129
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 16c | 3,799$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.85 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 23c | 883.13$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.28 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 75c | 838.09$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.52 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 13c | 734$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 717.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 15c | 640.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 10c | 556$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f2…b488backed Yes | 21c | 270$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 21c | 204$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842c…2e53backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 142.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c93…785fbacked No | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 30c | 125.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 105.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 67c | 105.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…ec0bbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…1d1ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Cleveland Guardians win the American League?this page
- Will the Detroit Tigers win the American League?No won
- Will the Houston Astros win the American League?No won
- Will the Kansas City Royals win the American League?No won
- Will the New York Yankees win the American League?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.