College Football · resolved market
Louisiana vs. Troy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd386ecfb2adfa21960ebdeea1832d75f18a92375bc6c62270206b75452c6e64e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Troyof Louisiana, Troy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Louisiana | 24c | 3,846$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.79 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Troy | 67c | 3,368$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.28 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Louisiana | 27c | 2,615$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.94 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed Louisiana | 18c | 2,400$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Louisiana | 26c | 2,256$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.56 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Troy | 74c | 1,802$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.48 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Troy | 77c | 1,728$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.71 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Louisiana | 27c | 703.52$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Troy | 74c | 554$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Louisiana | 26c | 377.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Troy | 62c | 363.71$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.62 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Troy | 62c | 317.45$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Troy | 76c | 310$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Louisiana | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Troy | 72c | 290$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Louisiana | 37c | 177.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Louisiana | 30c | 169.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Louisiana | 23c | 157.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Louisiana | 26c | 147.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Troy | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Troy | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Troy | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201f…edd1backed Troy | 74c | 108.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Troy | 63c | 103.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Troy | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Troy | 60c | 99.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6c…cabfbacked Louisiana | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…a2f9backed Troy | 78c | 84.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Louisiana | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Louisiana | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Troy | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Troy | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa0…0359backed Troy | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…38c7backed Troy | 77c | 27.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Troy | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Troy | 71c | 27.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Troy | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…cf04backed Troy | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…15eabacked Troy | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Troy | 73c | 18.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Louisiana vs. Troythis page
- Louisiana vs. Troy: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Troy (-8.5)Troy won
- Spread: Troy (-9.5)Troy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.