Tennis · resolved market
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3919adc09430febf44c62e5028e6643669000cf7c71d795aed6a1ddc57112eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Otto Virtanenof Otto Virtanen, Felix Gill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Felix Gill | 4c | 2,331$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d6…663bbacked Felix Gill | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Felix Gill | 22c | 1,000$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.78 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Felix Gill | 21c | 826.45$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…7242backed Felix Gill | 18c | 825.68$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.62 | 90 | 23.3%21 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Felix Gill | 5c | 822.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Felix Gill | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 365 | 35.1%128 W · 237 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Felix Gill | 15c | 482.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 148 | 13.5%20 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Felix Gill | 9c | 466.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 194 | 10.3%20 W · 174 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Otto Virtanen | 79c | 443.46$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.13 | 784 | 52.9%415 W · 369 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed Otto Virtanen | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 252 | 50%126 W · 126 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Felix Gill | 7c | 379.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 277 | 24.9%69 W · 208 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Felix Gill | 23c | 319.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 720 | 40.8%294 W · 426 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Felix Gill | 12c | 315.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Felix Gill | 19c | 309.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Felix Gill | 21c | 255.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 646 | 37.2%240 W · 406 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Otto Virtanen | 79c | 254.79$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 910 | 50.2%457 W · 453 L | -20.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Felix Gill | 16c | 203.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Otto Virtanen | 78c | 193.54$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 1,107 | 52.8%585 W · 522 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Otto Virtanen | 79c | 179$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Felix Gill | 17c | 163$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…0dedbacked Felix Gill | 17c | 144.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 585 | 39.5%231 W · 354 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782d…8211backed Otto Virtanen | 80c | 134.16$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 704 | 56.8%400 W · 304 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Otto Virtanen | 80c | 132.63$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Felix Gill | 21c | 129.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Felix Gill | 21c | 116.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Felix Gill | 18c | 112.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Felix Gill | 19c | 106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2,528 | 36.2%914 W · 1,614 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Felix Gill | 19c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Felix Gill | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,229 | 53.1%653 W · 576 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…41e1backed Otto Virtanen | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 371 | 58.8%218 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Felix Gill | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 35.1%78 W · 144 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Felix Gill | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Otto Virtanen | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Felix Gill | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Otto Virtanen | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Otto Virtanen | 78c | 23.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 595 | 65.4%389 W · 206 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Otto Virtanen | 79c | 22.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Otto Virtanen | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 410 | 61.5%252 W · 158 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.