Tennis · resolved market
Hamburg European Open: Arantxa Rus vs Elina Avanesyan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3ac64b6f5a1a15ea78c79a8b661746f367d091277a0ac6ee6ca8fa2e5c3e433
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elina Avanesyanof Arantxa Rus, Elina Avanesyan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arantxa Rus | 10c | 13,057$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.22 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arantxa Rus | 7c | 4,833$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.45 | 941 | 40.6%382 W · 559 L | -31.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arantxa Rus | 6c | 2,825$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.35 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arantxa Rus | 4c | 2,763$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Arantxa Rus | 29c | 1,846$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.45 | 2,521 | 38.4%969 W · 1,552 L | +93.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arantxa Rus | 28c | 1,103$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.84 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…0b4fbacked Arantxa Rus | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 373 | 45%168 W · 205 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Arantxa Rus | 29c | 648.28$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Elina Avanesyan | 80c | 483.44$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Arantxa Rus | 10c | 415.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Arantxa Rus | 25c | 400.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 499 | 42.3%211 W · 288 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arantxa Rus | 10c | 365.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Arantxa Rus | 28c | 337.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 1,047 | 50%524 W · 523 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…01ccbacked Elina Avanesyan | 76c | 328.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 1,077 | 62.8%676 W · 401 L | -27.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Arantxa Rus | 8c | 304.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1,766 | 45.9%810 W · 956 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Arantxa Rus | 25c | 284.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Arantxa Rus | 25c | 280.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 439 | 43.7%192 W · 247 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…f9bbbacked Arantxa Rus | 10c | 198.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Elina Avanesyan | 74c | 173.56$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Arantxa Rus | 29c | 172.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…17c5backed Arantxa Rus | 11c | 147.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Arantxa Rus | 17c | 125.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2592backed Arantxa Rus | 18c | 119.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…f871backed Elina Avanesyan | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Arantxa Rus | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…33a6backed Arantxa Rus | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Arantxa Rus | 26c | 38.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Elina Avanesyan | 70c | 27.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Elina Avanesyan | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 113 | 72.6%82 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 77cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Elina Avanesyan | 76c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 789 | 57.8%456 W · 333 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Elina Avanesyan | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Elina Avanesyan | 67c | 24.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Elina Avanesyan | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Elina Avanesyan | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,179 | 52.8%623 W · 556 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Elina Avanesyan | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,730 | 52.2%903 W · 827 L | -8.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Elina Avanesyan | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,772 | 52.1%923 W · 849 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Elina Avanesyan | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.