Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3bea93ec5fb2e4ba5095c657d59e4a21f330417c3b111988b2a8226cf2c5924
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 71c | 407.6$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 399.51$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 396.08$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 272.34$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 30c | 207.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 197.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 22c | 183.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 71c | 178.93$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 30c | 178.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 30c | 172.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 66c | 150.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 146.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 36c | 140.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 31c | 134.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 113$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 111.36$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 105.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 29c | 105.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 29c | 94.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 83.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 36c | 83.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 79.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 78.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 70.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 73c | 69.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 69.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 71c | 68.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 65.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 19c | 65.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 62.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 31c | 60.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 55.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 30c | 51.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 21c | 48.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 64c | 48.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 48.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 47.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 55c | 47.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 37.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 75c | 36.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 34.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 70c | 33.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5f…6c06backed Yes | 36c | 31.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 53c | 27.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 59c | 27.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 25.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 21.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…1169backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 19.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 75c | 17.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 70c | 17.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 71c | 15.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 74c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 68c | 15.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.