Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36c66e56705eef9787abe499b52537948d8abd50ce36d8b0f561c318e8e3ac7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 46c | 494.53$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.9 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed No | 51c | 390.9$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.97 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 361.3$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 336.27$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.38 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 208$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.22 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 152.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…f8f4backed Yes | 53c | 138.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 50c | 134.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 38c | 129.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 80c | 114.45$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 49c | 108.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 105.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 41c | 103.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 47c | 94.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 91.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 51c | 86.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 48c | 80.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 49c | 79.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 47c | 73.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 69.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 56c | 67.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 53c | 59.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 40c | 58.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 56c | 57.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 50c | 56.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 49c | 54.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d0…1515backed Yes | 49c | 51.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 66c | 49.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 48.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 45.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked No | 54c | 41.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d0…fad2backed No | 49c | 41.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 73c | 41.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 52c | 40.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 46c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 55c | 38.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 50c | 38.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 34.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 45c | 33.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 58c | 33.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 32.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 57c | 31.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 45c | 31.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 46c | 31.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 44c | 28.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 28.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd68a…fdc0backed No | 45c | 27.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 78c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 53c | 24.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 20.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 51c | 19.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…3880backed No | 57c | 19.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.