Lol · resolved market
LoL: DNF.C vs BFXY
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3d32ec9c1e603a9009bc47eb2e9a34631db878e7245de927a00fb82a160f948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BFXYof DNF.C, BFXY
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked BFXY | 26c | 2,532$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.21 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked DNF.C | 74c | 2,473$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.77 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked DNF.C | 68c | 1,907$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.05 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…6f5cbacked DNF.C | 78c | 1,055$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.82 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked BFXY | 40c | 966.4$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.78 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked BFXY | 39c | 510.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…564cbacked BFXY | 40c | 500.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.14 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed BFXY | 9c | 500$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 274 | 52.2%143 W · 131 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed BFXY | 32c | 325.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked BFXY | 18c | 160$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed DNF.C | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked BFXY | 37c | 150$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 1,356 | 51.1%693 W · 663 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba0…3d98backed DNF.C | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed BFXY | 16c | 136$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a6…f55fbacked BFXY | 38c | 62.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked DNF.C | 42c | 55.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed BFXY | 26c | 50.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 923 | 42.7%394 W · 529 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed DNF.C | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 364 | 65.1%237 W · 127 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed BFXY | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,136 | 63.1%717 W · 419 L | +51.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked BFXY | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,155 | 68.1%786 W · 369 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed BFXY | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed DNF.C | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 867 | 58.1%504 W · 363 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked DNF.C | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 228 | 58.3%133 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed DNF.C | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.