Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3e646b5923a1fe20667a0ada6289826053a930829682433c822cbcd73ed2b20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed Yes | 30c | 375.56$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.67 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 70c | 312.22$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…4e95backed Yes | 48c | 236.06$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 63c | 230.26$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…0fd9backed No | 70c | 229.2$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 175.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 153.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed No | 73c | 131.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked No | 69c | 112.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 38c | 108.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 20c | 100.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…ecf9backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 24c | 89.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 24c | 62.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 70c | 58.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 58.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 48c | 47.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 28c | 44.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…23dabacked Yes | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…e563backed Yes | 43c | 35.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…0740backed No | 77c | 23.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 29°F or below on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.