Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd457a22bded25540231f2583b375c1b4db8874074c62d4e778643f5d50ba353c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estar Backsof Estar Backs, TeamDk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked TeamDk | 25c | 1,773$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.58 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Estar Backs | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked TeamDk | 29c | 343.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed TeamDk | 19c | 233.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Estar Backs | 71c | 207.49$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8a…76a2backed TeamDk | 18c | 154.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Estar Backs | 75c | 153.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edb…d34dbacked Estar Backs | 79c | 120.49$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 47cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked TeamDk | 30c | 118.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc88c…c353backed TeamDk | 29c | 96.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed TeamDk | 19c | 79.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…8c91backed Estar Backs | 69c | 50.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Estar Backs | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 250 | 47.6%119 W · 131 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Estar Backs | 70c | 40.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk - Game 2 WinnerTeamDk won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.