Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9ce397abc9abeb8f51e0cc6bdf7f49848d5d2544e6085786990dc88cd306550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estar Backsof Estar Backs, TeamDk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked TeamDk | 5c | 2,900$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked TeamDk | 28c | 2,570$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.65 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked TeamDk | 12c | 1,472$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.51 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…7ecfbacked TeamDk | 16c | 724.17$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.09 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked TeamDk | 21c | 523.97$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked TeamDk | 60c | 468.52$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Estar Backs | 75c | 453.91$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…a528backed TeamDk | 4c | 415$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked TeamDk | 22c | 329.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed TeamDk | 27c | 318.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed TeamDk | 9c | 289.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Estar Backs | 75c | 270$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…1b8ebacked Estar Backs | 78c | 257.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 224 | 38.8%87 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…0e1cbacked TeamDk | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…0491backed TeamDk | 9c | 247.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed TeamDk | 22c | 240$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Estar Backs | 68c | 239.21$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked TeamDk | 17c | 235.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked TeamDk | 19c | 232.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…348ebacked TeamDk | 29c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked TeamDk | 19c | 182$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed TeamDk | 26c | 139.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed TeamDk | 22c | 134.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed TeamDk | 30c | 131$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Estar Backs | 62c | 127.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…c212backed TeamDk | 9c | 117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Estar Backs | 78c | 112.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Estar Backs | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 57cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…6c1bbacked Estar Backs | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Estar Backs | 64c | 74.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Estar Backs | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Estar Backs | 60c | 51.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Estar Backs | 59c | 49.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…0a49backed TeamDk | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Estar Backs | 66c | 30.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Estar Backs | 71c | 29.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed Estar Backs | 49c | 29.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Estar Backs | 78c | 26.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153e…7d1bbacked Estar Backs | 80c | 22.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Estar Backs | 61c | 20.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Estar Backs | 51c | 20.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…6ebdbacked Estar Backs | 78c | 12.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk - Game 1 WinnerEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk - Game 2 WinnerTeamDk won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.