Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b7e2caacc1b8522018d0acfc7977f3eb0c2c49a8864a4ca24f44513e8995e75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TeamDkof Estar Backs, TeamDk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad2f…ac6abacked TeamDk | 75c | 3,219$2,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.77 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked TeamDk | 20c | 2,622$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.34 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Estar Backs | 4c | 1,980$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…37acbacked Estar Backs | 5c | 1,400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +600%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Estar Backs | 14c | 1,393$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.29 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Estar Backs | 21c | 1,371$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.12 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Estar Backs | 6c | 1,250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Estar Backs | 21c | 1,157$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.61 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Estar Backs | 19c | 1,083$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.76 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Estar Backs | 77c | 1,043$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Estar Backs | 11c | 1,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Estar Backs | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Estar Backs | 21c | 741$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…063fbacked Estar Backs | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Estar Backs | 19c | 542$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +26.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Estar Backs | 18c | 447$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Estar Backs | 20c | 440$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed Estar Backs | 14c | 418.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Estar Backs | 17c | 412$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Estar Backs | 20c | 400$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Estar Backs | 15c | 387$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…3e6cbacked Estar Backs | 31c | 382$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Estar Backs | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked Estar Backs | 20c | 358.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Estar Backs | 21c | 342$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Estar Backs | 4c | 337.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked TeamDk | 36c | 335.07$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.84 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Estar Backs | 18c | 320$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Estar Backs | 18c | 319.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Estar Backs | 14c | 298.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked TeamDk | 23c | 265.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.08 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Estar Backs | 18c | 258.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked TeamDk | 25c | 245.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.11 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Estar Backs | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed TeamDk | 19c | 214.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Estar Backs | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Estar Backs | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Estar Backs | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…9a44backed Estar Backs | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88c…c353backed Estar Backs | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Estar Backs | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Estar Backs | 9c | 125.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…8c91backed Estar Backs | 70c | 100.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Estar Backs | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Estar Backs | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…0d90backed Estar Backs | 77c | 15.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Estar Backs | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk - Game 1 WinnerEstar Backs won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.