Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Murray State Racers vs. Northern Iowa Panthers (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd461a124bec1c673a3411b224d4867b3e4ff8b7af6f30855d5e1aefcf1168da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Iowa Panthersof Murray State Racers, Northern Iowa Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Murray State Racers | 1c | 9,299$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.37 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Murray State Racers | 1c | 700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 8.7%9 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Murray State Racers | 8c | 324$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Murray State Racers | 23c | 111.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 15c | 107$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…2d77backed Murray State Racers | 60c | 101.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 449 | 55.2%248 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…de7cbacked Northern Iowa Panthers | 52c | 38.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.