Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional win on 2025-12-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd46a4a4c4173dd552e878e63fc4d3f52bd3cf30a0908a4817e22acec1d62b8a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 59c | 20,000$11,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,200 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 41c | 19,998$8,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,199 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Yes | 34c | 3,018$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.92 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 64c | 1,988$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.05 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 1,329$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.78 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 67c | 1,194$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.37 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1590…9e72backed Yes | 43c | 1,000$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 516.55$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.15 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 80c | 502.87$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…34a8backed Yes | 22c | 460.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…4bd3backed No | 57c | 443.86$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 59c | 429.31$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.77 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e07…7703backed Yes | 38c | 416.92$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 28c | 397.95$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 12c | 380.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 38c | 339.47$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…c9c8backed Yes | 41c | 229.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 43c | 219$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 73c | 205.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 37c | 187.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 91 | 20.9%19 W · 72 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d19fbacked Yes | 31c | 180$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 57c | 138.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…7f14backed Yes | 37c | 129.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 8c | 128$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 242 | 42.1%102 W · 140 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 22c | 118.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…9782backed No | 57c | 111.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ac…65dbbacked Yes | 37c | 103.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c01…428ebacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 32c | 94.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed No | 66c | 75.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 43c | 73.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…1096backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 61c | 64.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 37c | 56.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 43c | 50.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 29c | 48.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Yes | 43c | 32.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c8aabacked Yes | 44c | 29.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 58c | 20.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 70c | 18.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional win on 2025-12-21?this page
- Will AVS Futebol vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?Yes won
- Will AVS Futebol win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.