Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AVS Futebol vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3ab95c799fbfeb01341f22c61318498965cd050337c4bad83fb800ac5c16585
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 12,113$5,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,841.14 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 34c | 10,912$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,202.03 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 52c | 965.68$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 867.2$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.23 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 72c | 793.22$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.86 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 58c | 769.66$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.66 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 31c | 484$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.96 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a3…575cbacked Yes | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 24c | 280.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 217.71$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked No | 23c | 205.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Yes | 66c | 205.02$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 26c | 127.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed Yes | 29c | 115.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed No | 70c | 104.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 17c | 93.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -17.3wins | -0.28per pick | 33cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…bdbdbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…ca50backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 28c | 72.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 30c | 50.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -7.7wins | -0.23per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 36.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c22…12c4backed No | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfc…83c6backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -8.0wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…ca8dbacked Yes | 56c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c8aabacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AVS Futebol vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?this page
- Will AVS Futebol win on 2025-12-21?No won
- Will CD Nacional win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.