Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
SMU Mustangs vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4cf1d3474118e69916f2cc8cec636e2ca1f9e269b552495abd34dab1e77d060
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vanderbilt Commodoresof SMU Mustangs, Vanderbilt Commodores
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked SMU Mustangs | 16c | 4,634$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.15 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…f075backed SMU Mustangs | 15c | 4,581$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed SMU Mustangs | 10c | 2,523$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.3 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed SMU Mustangs | 10c | 1,470$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked SMU Mustangs | 18c | 1,397$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed SMU Mustangs | 10c | 1,299$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.88 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed SMU Mustangs | 11c | 1,213$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.52 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed SMU Mustangs | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed SMU Mustangs | 10c | 447$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…783cbacked SMU Mustangs | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed SMU Mustangs | 16c | 299.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed SMU Mustangs | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked SMU Mustangs | 16c | 220.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked SMU Mustangs | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked SMU Mustangs | 10c | 155$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked SMU Mustangs | 10c | 119$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 231 | 58.9%136 W · 95 L | +23.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed SMU Mustangs | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed SMU Mustangs | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed SMU Mustangs | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed SMU Mustangs | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked SMU Mustangs | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…122dbacked SMU Mustangs | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.