IPO · resolved market
Will Generate Biomedicines' market cap be less than $1.9B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4d3d74607584c87cc7d5408d4827dd70a14ec6137056f62d38c7690f240ccad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 9c | 1,468$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.69 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 9c | 1,029$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed No | 3c | 750$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 7c | 571$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 571$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c80…ab52backed No | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…e9c6backed No | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17c…3dafbacked No | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…15bebacked No | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 7c | 357$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…4745backed Yes | 77c | 233.85$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2d…cb6bbacked Yes | 14c | 101$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Generate Biomedicines' market cap be less than $1.9B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Generate Biomedicines not IPO before April 2026?No won
- Will Generate Biomedicines' market cap be $2.3B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Generate Biomedicines' market cap be between $1.9B and $2.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Generate Biomedicines' market cap be between $2.0B and $2.1B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Generate Biomedicines' market cap be between $2.1B and $2.2B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Generate Biomedicines' market cap be between $2.2B and $2.3B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.