Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4e177860172d1e6e4b73271948aebe0590f0c16b25b45161d202088e7d81a2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMU Mustangsof SMU Mustangs, Syracuse Orange
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,707 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Syracuse Orange | 53c | 5,342$2,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,831.31 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 3,722$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.08 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 1,716$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.56 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 583.09$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.71 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…3858backed Syracuse Orange | 52c | 506.77$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.92 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SMU Mustangs | 58c | 428.82$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.66 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Syracuse Orange | 49c | 398.46$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.76 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Syracuse Orange | 54c | 368.45$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.26 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Syracuse Orange | 31c | 236$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed SMU Mustangs | 54c | 231.11$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.31 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed SMU Mustangs | 64c | 155.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 155 | 59.4%92 W · 63 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 130.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Syracuse Orange | 47c | 127.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 124.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Syracuse Orange | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Syracuse Orange | 48c | 77.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Syracuse Orange | 51c | 35.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked SMU Mustangs | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 32.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-4.5)this page
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-3.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-5.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Syracuse Orange vs. SMU MustangsSMU Mustangs won
- Syracuse Orange vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 154.5Over won
- Syracuse Orange vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 155.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.