Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d743f504439ed298f55e181965bba83f09d348d3bcba8c7d0e00c8e7f2c0996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMU Mustangsof SMU Mustangs, Syracuse Orange
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,011 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Syracuse Orange | 49c | 20,378$9,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,985.3 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Syracuse Orange | 44c | 19,068$8,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,390.12 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 16,769$8,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,216.84 | 177 | 42.9%76 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked SMU Mustangs | 51c | 3,266$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.41 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Syracuse Orange | 49c | 780.5$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.45 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…5930backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 692.72$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Syracuse Orange | 44c | 512.05$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.3 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Syracuse Orange | 44c | 487.58$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.53 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Syracuse Orange | 47c | 255.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.29 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Syracuse Orange | 47c | 172.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed SMU Mustangs | 58c | 120.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x979d…87dcbacked SMU Mustangs | 51c | 103.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed SMU Mustangs | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed SMU Mustangs | 53c | 80.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed SMU Mustangs | 54c | 55.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…0da9backed SMU Mustangs | 53c | 45.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Syracuse Orange | 50c | 43.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 322 | 46.6%150 W · 172 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Syracuse Orange | 50c | 40.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked SMU Mustangs | 51c | 33.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222d…40b9backed SMU Mustangs | 68c | 29.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed SMU Mustangs | 41c | 27.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-3.5)this page
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-4.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-5.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Syracuse Orange vs. SMU MustangsSMU Mustangs won
- Syracuse Orange vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 154.5Over won
- Syracuse Orange vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 155.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.