Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd50678ce0d57682bf6ab24d470f45d8301903b06989e671b62cbc8dd1b1b8631
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Tōkyōof Tōkyō Verdy, FC Tōkyō
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tōkyō Verdy | 22c | 2,538$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.13 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Tōkyō Verdy | 9c | 1,015$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Tōkyō Verdy | 10c | 798$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…91a0backed FC Tōkyō | 77c | 601.99$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed FC Tōkyō | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…d8acbacked FC Tōkyō | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…012ebacked FC Tōkyō | 77c | 350.65$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed FC Tōkyō | 78c | 154.63$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…12e2backed FC Tōkyō | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked FC Tōkyō | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed FC Tōkyō | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked FC Tōkyō | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +67%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)this page
- FC Tōkyō vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Tōkyō vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.