Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd52665bf946b82c5a5967d1333bbb76d1a252c50bbe8bcf56532306fa8f69682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 353.15$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 27c | 278.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 75c | 262.07$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 44c | 225.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 175.16$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 72c | 173.22$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 152.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 131.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 116.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 114$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 32c | 110.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 109.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 102.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 31c | 89.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…7075backed Yes | 23c | 82.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 82.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa734…7163backed Yes | 31c | 80.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 64c | 78.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 71.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 31c | 71.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 26c | 69.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed No | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 30c | 67.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 65.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 62.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 60.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 73c | 58.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 56.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 52.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 24c | 51.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 30c | 50.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 46.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 79c | 44.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 72c | 41.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed No | 73c | 40.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 37.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…5ab2backed No | 74c | 33.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 35c | 31.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…eb51backed No | 73c | 26.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 71c | 26.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 25.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…55d7backed No | 74c | 25.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 24.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 24.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 70c | 18.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 73c | 14.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b38…52c8backed No | 79c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.