MLB · resolved market
Reds vs. Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd527dd94b87b5b3cb040e51af0017d997aefa1e4fc16c64e204840e732ad0a26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Reds, Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf980…6528backed Braves | 51c | 28,213$14,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,380.54 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Reds | 49c | 11,319$5,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,731.4 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Reds | 48c | 6,000$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,100 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Reds | 49c | 3,421$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.38 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Reds | 49c | 2,220$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.79 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Reds | 74c | 1,773$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.96 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Reds | 49c | 1,611$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.43 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Reds | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Reds | 52c | 1,012$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Reds | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Reds | 61c | 900$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Reds | 67c | 800.16$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.82 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Braves | 35c | 800$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Reds | 50c | 716.86$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.43 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Reds | 49c | 564$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.84 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Braves | 15c | 426$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Reds | 72c | 340$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Reds | 52c | 333.78$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.97 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Reds | 50c | 241$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Braves | 19c | 210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Braves | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Braves | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Reds | 49c | 141$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Reds | 49c | 138.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Reds | 51c | 98.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Braves | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Braves | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Reds | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Reds | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Reds | 48c | 42.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Braves | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Reds | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Braves | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Reds | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.