Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5361b056ff026921f85b882d32458223f0c22fe932d189a74b19b2c504ea0e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 79c | 1,139$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.48 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 986.25$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.86 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 546.92$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 40c | 495.08$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.03 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 49c | 467.67$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.51 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 51c | 447.09$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.98 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 3c | 369$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 17c | 282.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 20c | 257.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed Under | 19c | 248.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 210.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe345…f5ecbacked Over | 78c | 177.27$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5289…e8e5backed Under | 22c | 177.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 78c | 153.19$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 37c | 115.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…7800backed Over | 72c | 114.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +120%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 83.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Under | 50c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 50c | 70.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 23c | 66.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 51c | 62.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 51c | 62.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 76c | 61.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 73c | 43.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 52c | 28.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 52c | 28.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Under | 52c | 27.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 46c | 25.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 72c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
- Toronto FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.