Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5803519f4578b1a1be2cd15a80275c7138d3bab4ba7e7a270e7a84d61b38851
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 39c | 887.05$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.57 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 49c | 791.75$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.44 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 46c | 416.23$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.47 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 63c | 374.07$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.05 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…1e16backed No | 69c | 367.53$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 263.72$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 35c | 199.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 173.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 41c | 161.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 152.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 125.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 59c | 120.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 99.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 95.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 51c | 89.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 74.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 30c | 68.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 41c | 62.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 59.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 29c | 54.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 60c | 49.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…7dc6backed Yes | 42c | 45.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 41c | 42.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 57c | 33.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…307cbacked Yes | 49c | 33.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 32.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 45c | 31.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 56c | 28.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 45c | 28.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e3…cda2backed Yes | 56c | 26.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 61c | 22.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 60c | 20.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 61c | 19.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 19.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 55c | 18.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613f…6463backed No | 73c | 14.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.