Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5892129611bd18b9af2084576175dea2fcff5bdd6b6ebdea9ef5423302e1ebb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 41,742$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 12c | 605.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 326.57$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 230.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.22 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 77c | 209.03$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 198.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 42c | 196.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.02 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 194.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 42c | 147.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 64c | 139.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 9c | 133.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 45c | 133.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 45c | 120.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 46c | 113.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 43c | 110.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 39c | 102.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 59c | 100.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 97.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 41c | 94.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 41c | 94.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 86.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 14c | 86.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 79.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 56c | 79.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 40c | 78.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 34c | 76.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 34c | 70.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 41c | 62.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 38c | 60.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…0307backed No | 64c | 60.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 42c | 58.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 49.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 41c | 47.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 35c | 45.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 40c | 41.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 60c | 39.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 38.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 38.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 36.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 76c | 34.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 41c | 34.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 41c | 34.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…b712backed No | 57c | 32.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 43c | 31.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 30.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 38c | 30.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 30.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 45c | 27.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 59c | 27.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8a…6e95backed Yes | 41c | 26.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 55c | 26.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 60c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 22.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 56c | 21.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 63c | 20.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.