NHL · resolved market
AHL: Manitoba Moose vs. Abbotsford Canucks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd59ee7a73da4ec848bd3d58eaa7d52bf0dd82c79bdb8e70ec4a2885fb69b9920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manitoba Mooseof Manitoba Moose, Abbotsford Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,505 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc639…997fbacked Manitoba Moose | 50c | 1,998$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa08f…87f3backed Abbotsford Canucks | 50c | 1,997$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Manitoba Moose | 50c | 817.05$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.69 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Abbotsford Canucks | 50c | 594.53$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Manitoba Moose | 51c | 425.41$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.42 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Abbotsford Canucks | 49c | 404.65$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.28 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Abbotsford Canucks | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Manitoba Moose | 51c | 187.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Abbotsford Canucks | 50c | 160.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Manitoba Moose | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Manitoba Moose | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…4cf7backed Abbotsford Canucks | 50c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 40cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…922bbacked Manitoba Moose | 50c | 58.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Abbotsford Canucks | 47c | 57.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Abbotsford Canucks | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…c000backed Manitoba Moose | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Abbotsford Canucks | 48c | 43.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…98b8backed Abbotsford Canucks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Manitoba Moose | 56c | 30.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…8d29backed Abbotsford Canucks | 48c | 22.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…cba7backed Manitoba Moose | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.