Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b99df5017a9a16f30a32256704985d220abda013d3594fb1f3e73a7bf1def4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 52c | 1,485$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.84 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 79c | 728.69$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.38 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 600.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 14c | 351.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 225.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 191.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 15c | 176.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 17c | 174$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 17c | 172.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 53c | 170.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 162.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…336fbacked No | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 148.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 48c | 136$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed No | 14c | 122.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 24c | 122.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 114.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed No | 14c | 100.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed Yes | 21c | 58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 49c | 52.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…924dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 25c | 44.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 65c | 37.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 36c | 36.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 37c | 28.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 61c | 23.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 61c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 76c | 15.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 9?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 9?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 9?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 9?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.