Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana State Bobcats vs. Oregon State Beavers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b9d05c4e76d38e0e3b8dafed3272f9b89b519a4b81cd2d08e568a0b73a9246
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregon State Beaversof Montana State Bobcats, Oregon State Beavers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Oregon State Beavers | 57c | 1,925$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.75 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Montana State Bobcats | 43c | 1,792$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.79 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Montana State Bobcats | 41c | 1,124$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.84 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oregon State Beavers | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.09 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Montana State Bobcats | 47c | 645$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.15 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oregon State Beavers | 58c | 500$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Oregon State Beavers | 56c | 381.79$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.24 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Montana State Bobcats | 9c | 351.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 294 | 44.6%131 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Montana State Bobcats | 41c | 275$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Oregon State Beavers | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Montana State Bobcats | 25c | 228.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Montana State Bobcats | 13c | 205.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Montana State Bobcats | 40c | 127$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Oregon State Beavers | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Oregon State Beavers | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 254 | 38.2%97 W · 157 L | -14.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Oregon State Beavers | 63c | 95.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb709…05c9backed Montana State Bobcats | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oregon State Beavers | 63c | 81.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Oregon State Beavers | 77c | 80.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Montana State Bobcats | 29c | 66.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Montana State Bobcats | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Montana State Bobcats | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Montana State Bobcats | 43c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Montana State Bobcats | 43c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…f49cbacked Oregon State Beavers | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Oregon State Beavers | 55c | 26.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Oregon State Beavers | 65c | 25.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 402 | 52.7%212 W · 190 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Montana State Bobcats | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d1…f279backed Oregon State Beavers | 75c | 17.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Oregon State Beaversthis page
- Spread: Oregon State Beavers (-3.5)Oregon State Beavers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.