Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5cc3d67d608ab6fe2a42e455cc1666b5c130428aa219b094b6c1d12dd68f663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fd0…11dbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,054$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 1,007$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…0898backed No | 63c | 495.13$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 40c | 480.58$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.63 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 32c | 422.79$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.37 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 64c | 380.52$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.94 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 77c | 187.44$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.6 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 177.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…e61dbacked Yes | 37c | 170.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 39c | 170.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 42c | 162.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…5e0dbacked Yes | 33c | 144.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 16c | 138.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.36 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 47c | 132.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 47c | 121.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 65c | 115.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 26c | 108$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 51c | 100.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…b26bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed Yes | 79c | 96.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 46c | 90.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…10e6backed Yes | 58c | 85.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…3d55backed Yes | 65c | 81.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 52c | 77.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 48c | 76.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 56.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 66c | 53.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…9d69backed Yes | 38c | 53.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 36c | 49.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c5…8511backed Yes | 51c | 43.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 48c | 39.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…14aabacked Yes | 69c | 38.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fc…8a7ebacked No | 43c | 34.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fa…0133backed Yes | 39c | 28.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847f…e75ebacked Yes | 78c | 25.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…aba8backed Yes | 67c | 23.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.