Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3afb32bbadd15832d93603f7da6bc8ca0d494962cf94520fc5efdb4ed333cf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 0c | 7,036$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 73c | 2,606$1,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.91 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 1,087$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.95 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 45c | 865.16$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.22 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 41c | 622.39$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.24 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 18c | 374.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 29c | 341.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 32c | 270$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.21 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 67c | 225.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…1241backed No | 5c | 185.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 113.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c5…8511backed Yes | 42c | 104.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…b26bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 58c | 87.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…ffeabacked Yes | 77c | 79.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 24c | 79.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…11dbbacked Yes | 60c | 76.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 23c | 72.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 72.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…551fbacked No | 53c | 66.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 56c | 65.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed No | 72c | 60.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 23c | 58.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…5e0dbacked Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 67c | 52.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 45c | 49.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 70c | 49.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 45.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 60c | 40.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 44c | 35.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked Yes | 34c | 31.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 41c | 28.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcff…ab9bbacked Yes | 49c | 26.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 45c | 26.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.