Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Roar Gaming (BO1) - ESL Challenger China Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5d03bb08eab43cb0661c9b0fc3e8fe415a573cff157c58728a4be9ddd5e9014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roar Gamingof Yakutou Brothers, Roar Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5db…f982backed Yakutou Brothers | 0c | 4,734$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Yakutou Brothers | 19c | 1,123$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.37 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Yakutou Brothers | 47c | 982$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.76 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Roar Gaming | 74c | 713.33$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.8 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…c37fbacked Roar Gaming | 52c | 430.4$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Roar Gaming | 71c | 393.7$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.92 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Roar Gaming | 40c | 258.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.15 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 36c | 250.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Yakutou Brothers | 60c | 166.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Roar Gaming | 67c | 149.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7eebbacked Roar Gaming | 79c | 142.88$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Yakutou Brothers | 56c | 112.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…4883backed Yakutou Brothers | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…20e7backed Roar Gaming | 73c | 104.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked Yakutou Brothers | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Roar Gaming | 37c | 84.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…0550backed Roar Gaming | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce79…7cedbacked Roar Gaming | 67c | 74.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…3f58backed Yakutou Brothers | 72c | 54.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da1…e6dfbacked Yakutou Brothers | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.