Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Andreescu (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5e1edbdb42cfc6bf37bef1f0d3e275fcf9c0db29481e575ddadd343d86f50a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mertensof Mertens, Andreescu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea32…8870backed Andreescu | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,199.95 | 101 | 59.4%60 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Mertens | 61c | 11,919$7,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,646.49 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Mertens | 54c | 9,230$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,229.71 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Andreescu | 45c | 5,413$2,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,435.72 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Mertens | 53c | 3,186$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.24 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Andreescu | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Andreescu | 46c | 2,274$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.86 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mertens | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Andreescu | 45c | 1,778$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.43 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Mertens | 54c | 1,393$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.55 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Mertens | 53c | 935.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.31 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Andreescu | 46c | 677.78$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.78 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Mertens | 54c | 673.82$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.14 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Andreescu | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Mertens | 53c | 500.6$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.6 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Mertens | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.35 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Mertens | 52c | 413.81$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.63 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Mertens | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Andreescu | 51c | 196.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Andreescu | 47c | 187$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 342 | 42.4%145 W · 197 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Mertens | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Andreescu | 50c | 115$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Andreescu | 45c | 108.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 268 | 49.3%132 W · 136 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Mertens | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Andreescu | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Mertens | 58c | 60.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed Mertens | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Andreescu | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Mertens | 52c | 30.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Mertens | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Andreescu | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f5…2573backed Mertens | 51c | 29.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Andreescu | 51c | 27.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba17…5c67backed Andreescu | 45c | 27.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Mertens | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -13.4wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Andreescu (+1.5)this page
- Andreescu vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise MertensElise Mertens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.