La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5f5d0847fb8c1da10f0cecd87eec1ba359ba62f94d92bd93891acab6f645d1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Yes | 66c | 5,003$3,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,281.37 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.1wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +249.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 2,000$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.77 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Yes | 20c | 1,346$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.1 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 35c | 1,086$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.81 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 19c | 999$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 61c | 964.98$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.96 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes | 15c | 827.63$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 75c | 810.12$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.02 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Yes | 17c | 800$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 14c | 761.57$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Yes | 66c | 751.46$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 35c | 730.42$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.25 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 702.22$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 17c | 517.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 228 | 59.6%136 W · 92 L | +18.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 58c | 415$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.7 | 258 | 72.9%188 W · 70 L | +23.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked No | 40c | 350.57$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.34 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 35c | 268$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.26 | 139 | 69.8%97 W · 42 L | +30.1wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 42c | 267$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.86 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 65c | 230$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…ec38backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66c4…2852backed Yes | 67c | 199.81$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 61c | 189.49$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 60c | 174.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c0…8e1bbacked Yes | 21c | 157.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 18c | 105.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 17c | 89.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 309 | 56%173 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa262…c8babacked Yes | 17c | 83.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa137…564bbacked Yes | 16c | 70.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda8c…47eabacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…907bbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed Yes | 64c | 19.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked Yes | 59c | 17.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…5bc5backed Yes | 60c | 16.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…584dbacked Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.