Serie A · resolved market
Will Genoa vs. Fiorentina end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6026cd2591a2f5c0267e38b7c0b774234b4b7b09db86a0c598e7c05104fbed9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 33c | 2,765$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.36 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 67c | 2,027$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.23 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 68c | 1,108$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.09 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 34c | 475$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.2 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 398.06$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.99 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 20c | 394.41$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ce…374ebacked No | 68c | 318.81$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6048…7c43backed No | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…37a7backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 46c | 64.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 65c | 49.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 34c | 47.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 34c | 47.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…a0b8backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…33e4backed Yes | 71c | 28.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c9…4fa8backed No | 68c | 18.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Genoa vs. Fiorentina end in a draw?this page
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-11-09?No won
- Will Genoa win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.