Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5042c1382f62378b65585f9d0b88ff03e8307b93a69fc1159c9be617bf2ed71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 19c | 64,999$12,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,249.88 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 67c | 14,838$9,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,896.44 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 67c | 10,000$6,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 67c | 2,183$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.95 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Yes | 33c | 1,100$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 34c | 853.15$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.41 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 67c | 847.37$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.68 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 80c | 621.63$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.02 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…3682backed Yes | 26c | 562.23$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed Yes | 34c | 530$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 33c | 462$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Yes | 35c | 432.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 34c | 373.39$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.41 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9117…cecabacked Yes | 29c | 322.86$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 22c | 315.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 70c | 304.14$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.75 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 225$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 76c | 214.22$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 30c | 197.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e5…092ebacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 165.01$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 32c | 145$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 70c | 143.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…37d5backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 62c | 137$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 223 | 73.1%163 W · 60 L | +20.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3289…4538backed Yes | 23c | 114.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 66c | 106$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 35c | 95.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12dd…1aacbacked Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396a…b1d3backed Yes | 34c | 88.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 29c | 68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 38c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…33bfbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c9…4fa8backed Yes | 34c | 37.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec0…82ddbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will Genoa vs. Fiorentina end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Genoa win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.