NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd62df658476f2b81413be7313749266cb67802eacb1f3937551b20fbb012c7f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 1,460$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.78 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 712.53$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.03 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 524.56$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.77 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 48c | 399.98$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.99 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…b85dbacked Under | 50c | 393$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Under | 50c | 294$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 291.18$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 51c | 194.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 51c | 155.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 51c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Over | 51c | 63.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 46c | 52.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 54c | 45.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…81f6backed Over | 52c | 24.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed Under | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Kings vs. LightningKings won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.