Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd66441eadcc08deecfc9490a900f27a1ba66b86c9813e49baa428dca3d0184ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,769 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 776.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked No | 3c | 666.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 579$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 481.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 292.12$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.04 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 225.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 193.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 9c | 179.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 69c | 172.18$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 26c | 138$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 109$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 102.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 19c | 92.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 83.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 82.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 31c | 80.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 70.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 65.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 25c | 56.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 28c | 54.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 35c | 53.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 22c | 50.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 78c | 40.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 32c | 39.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 77c | 31.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 80c | 27.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…e3d7backed No | 78c | 24.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530a…7cc5backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…fa17backed No | 66c | 18.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.