Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe360c35aa66618ac6a0a263721385142628da34b999b078cfdd11f57496716c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,056 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 573$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…e855backed Yes | 44c | 227.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 55c | 223.21$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 37c | 203.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 55c | 180.49$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 46c | 174.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.04 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 63c | 163.92$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 117.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 109$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 59c | 95.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 43c | 93.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 44c | 90.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 54c | 80.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 45c | 76.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 57c | 76.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 51c | 74.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 62c | 70.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 66.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 65.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 41c | 54.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 39c | 50.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 49c | 46.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 41.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 41.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…f9a6backed Yes | 38c | 39.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31f1…35eebacked Yes | 51c | 39.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…4493backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…5f77backed Yes | 42c | 35.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 63c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 31.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985a…7b76backed No | 56c | 29.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 37c | 28.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 28.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed Yes | 45c | 26.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 38c | 26.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 57c | 25.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…a5bfbacked Yes | 62c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 61c | 23.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…ec5dbacked No | 55c | 18.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 66c | 17.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 66c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.