Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd666cf88b510e82fc74c40c6d6db087c7b21f9c813b0a41ea9f4fe516909d140
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 2,184$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.2 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 31c | 1,499$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.83 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 34c | 1,420$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.36 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 67c | 234.36$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 114.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…e265backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 69c | 98.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…0335backed Under | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…7b19backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 29.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 27.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3501…0591backed Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SS Lazio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.