Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fe70104250ae0ae2ce09e6e42bfac9cfc7b5c687e00502e4f8ea01025e4cc7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 22c | 19,000$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 6,648$4,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,182.95 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 79c | 6,440$5,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.41 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 2,735$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.96 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 44c | 2,139$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.06 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Under | 62c | 1,577$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.84 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 56c | 1,511$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.09 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 35c | 1,381$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.44 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Over | 79c | 1,259$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 974$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.61 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…9612backed Over | 53c | 700$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 71c | 542$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 540.48$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.38 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 47c | 486$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 67c | 485.07$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 42c | 461.04$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.67 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 65c | 444.08$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked Over | 43c | 399.06$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Under | 74c | 340.54$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 42c | 280.89$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 275$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…63cbbacked Under | 78c | 227.81$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 50c | 225$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 59c | 210.17$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 79c | 189.42$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 20c | 175.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.64 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +7.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +285.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…d605backed Over | 59c | 170.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 58c | 164.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 153.86$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Over | 53c | 141.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 59c | 132.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 78c | 127$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 52c | 125.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 64c | 115.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Under | 66c | 103.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…e265backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Under | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 116 | 66.4%77 W · 39 L | +14.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 55c | 67.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…bfb5backed Over | 69c | 50.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d9…13fbbacked Over | 47c | 48.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 54c | 40.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…c9d1backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…1e51backed Over | 39c | 39.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Under | 58c | 33.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Over | 54c | 31.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 50c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 58c | 25.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Over | 60c | 25.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2a…afe4backed Under | 59c | 24.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…68fabacked Over | 43c | 23.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SS Lazio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.