Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Swiatek vs Rybakina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6bcfa55859e99909147c31e02a27f14bb9fdbdb0c4ce35e0f0125a95a897a39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swiatekof Swiatek, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ad…ae4bbacked Swiatek | 58c | 6,938$4,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,890.84 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Rybakina | 30c | 3,265$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.55 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Rybakina | 42c | 1,562$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.4 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…732ebacked Rybakina | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.98 | 345 | 55.1%190 W · 155 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…9c8fbacked Rybakina | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 117 | 60.7%71 W · 46 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba59…3c7fbacked Rybakina | 44c | 920$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Swiatek | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Swiatek | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Rybakina | 43c | 542$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.06 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed Swiatek | 53c | 406.06$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.85 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Rybakina | 43c | 309.3$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…4253backed Swiatek | 59c | 274.58$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36dc…531bbacked Rybakina | 53c | 160.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Rybakina | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Rybakina | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Rybakina | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…58e8backed Rybakina | 47c | 123.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…7682backed Rybakina | 27c | 92.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Rybakina | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Swiatek | 60c | 49.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Rybakina | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Swiatek | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Swiatek | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…3964backed Rybakina | 43c | 30.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Rybakina | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Swiatek | 58c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 267 | 48.7%130 W · 137 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Swiatek vs Rybakinathis page
- Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Iga Swiatek vs Elena RybakinaIga Swiatek won
- Set 1 Winner: Swiatek vs RybakinaSwiatek won
- Swiatek vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.