Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6e2ae87f08121c8c0533987324191a7c1e5dc724a0ddf0d855afa657607a74d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 0c | 37,221$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f0…7962backed Yes | 1c | 5,610$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 29c | 1,168$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.24 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…d452backed Yes | 71c | 1,098$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed No | 21c | 710$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.6 | 194 | 8.2%16 W · 178 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed Yes | 39c | 599.9$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.58 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…7b1dbacked Yes | 51c | 315.04$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.83 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 8c | 285.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed Yes | 80c | 208.83$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.06 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…aa7abacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…f4c3backed No | 80c | 135.15$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked No | 43c | 115.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 67c | 114.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef9…427dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…3f78backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…80c1backed Yes | 70c | 98.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37b…4d5dbacked Yes | 74c | 74.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 57c | 63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…2a56backed Yes | 39c | 43.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20d…74debacked No | 40c | 42.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 58c | 35.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…f12ebacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9afa…c346backed No | 65c | 16.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or below on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.