Tennis · resolved market
Hagen: Rudolf Molleker vs Maxim Mrva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd769e549cb4dafdb10ae2d282762392bf6aa36c5a23519d2a3739cdaf57d0173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maxim Mrvaof Rudolf Molleker, Maxim Mrva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Rudolf Molleker | 20c | 1,646$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.49 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Maxim Mrva | 65c | 1,542$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.25 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…9ab0backed Rudolf Molleker | 40c | 1,300$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.89 | 672 | 39.1%263 W · 409 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Rudolf Molleker | 18c | 1,000$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.17 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…1a99backed Rudolf Molleker | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 30.2%29 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Maxim Mrva | 79c | 877.74$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.82 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Rudolf Molleker | 8c | 827.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Rudolf Molleker | 18c | 447.46$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Rudolf Molleker | 18c | 419.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Maxim Mrva | 63c | 396.82$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.82 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Rudolf Molleker | 18c | 367.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Maxim Mrva | 71c | 209.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 396 | 48%190 W · 206 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Maxim Mrva | 78c | 191.51$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Rudolf Molleker | 36c | 186$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…117ebacked Maxim Mrva | 67c | 182.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rudolf Molleker | 37c | 177.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…55f8backed Maxim Mrva | 58c | 168.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Maxim Mrva | 71c | 167.01$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Rudolf Molleker | 24c | 155.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Rudolf Molleker | 13c | 127.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 323 | 29.7%96 W · 227 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Maxim Mrva | 74c | 122.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Rudolf Molleker | 36c | 106.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Rudolf Molleker | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Maxim Mrva | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 250 | 48.8%122 W · 128 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Rudolf Molleker | 19c | 72.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Rudolf Molleker | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Rudolf Molleker | 36c | 55.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Rudolf Molleker | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Maxim Mrva | 73c | 54.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Rudolf Molleker | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…e84cbacked Maxim Mrva | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 302 | 68.9%208 W · 94 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x163d…7c69backed Rudolf Molleker | 35c | 38.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 147 | 15.6%23 W · 124 L | -32.8wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…9874backed Maxim Mrva | 79c | 37.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Rudolf Molleker | 37c | 36.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Maxim Mrva | 62c | 32.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Maxim Mrva | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 394 | 46.7%184 W · 210 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Maxim Mrva | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Maxim Mrva | 64c | 17.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Maxim Mrva | 60c | 17.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.