CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd78997d08e314115643ec40d631902a10d2e49329d5d1dc1d082de0a1f910e51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Omega, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c8c…f2cebacked Omega | 45c | 750.4$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.72 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…ef63backed Ursa | 58c | 516.35$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.57 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…c217backed Omega | 42c | 512.4$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.21 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc28f…9185backed Omega | 36c | 493.09$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.51 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcee0…f8f9backed Ursa | 63c | 493.01$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.41 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ursa | 51c | 314.87$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Omega | 10c | 296.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 57c | 262.26$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Omega | 46c | 135.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Ursa | 50c | 100.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Omega | 50c | 85.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 220 | 45.5%100 W · 120 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Omega | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Omega | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed Ursa | 47c | 34.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 404 | 57.2%231 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Ursa | 62c | 27.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a2…3715backed Ursa | 57c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Omega | 73c | 19.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group StageUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Omega (+1.5)Ursa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.