CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46780dc050addaad798efea534048f0023e7d6596eceb319d2c969170e510aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Omega, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c8c…f2cebacked Ursa | 37c | 1,663$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.51 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Omega | 72c | 1,484$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.97 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…33d5backed Ursa | 27c | 1,053$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.97 | 484 | 37.6%182 W · 302 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Omega | 73c | 1,016$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.68 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Omega | 31c | 742.92$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.94 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Ursa | 52c | 705.1$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.14 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…50d8backed Ursa | 46c | 522.11$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.91 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Omega | 49c | 511.27$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.38 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f0…67c9backed Ursa | 56c | 494.38$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.58 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…73b0backed Ursa | 59c | 493.46$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.49 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…b7e5backed Omega | 40c | 492.8$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 69c | 310.8$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ursa | 55c | 296.51$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.76 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ursa | 57c | 266.02$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.39 | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Omega | 40c | 179.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Omega | 44c | 178.47$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…d815backed Omega | 69c | 143.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Omega | 49c | 128.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Omega | 34c | 107.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Omega | 33c | 98.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…e6fbbacked Ursa | 65c | 96.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ursa | 57c | 81.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…f2aabacked Omega | 68c | 75.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed Omega | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Omega | 38c | 52.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ursa | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ursa | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Omega | 57c | 43.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 470 | 53.2%250 W · 220 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Ursa | 47c | 39.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Omega | 58c | 30.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Omega | 45c | 29.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 370 | 50.5%187 W · 183 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Omega | 52c | 28.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 388 | 58.2%226 W · 162 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0a…1584backed Ursa | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Ursa | 60c | 24.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…9b9abacked Ursa | 66c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 456 | 63.6%290 W · 166 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5636…4479backed Ursa | 66c | 21.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Omega | 51c | 21.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…d6ccbacked Ursa | 55c | 20.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Omega | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked Ursa | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group StageUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Omega (+1.5)Ursa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.