Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7a37065367d2dd472cd6a37fa2b9ec1f633b4701b3c76c448417940df02fd7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nevada Wolf Packof New Mexico Lobos, Nevada Wolf Pack
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico Lobos | 45c | 1,180$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.27 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 54c | 875.68$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.74 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked New Mexico Lobos | 46c | 523.2$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.63 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 55c | 474.26$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.03 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…6a8bbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 54c | 302.04$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed New Mexico Lobos | 44c | 295.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 219 | 37.4%82 W · 137 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed New Mexico Lobos | 42c | 236.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 61c | 156.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad0…8d6dbacked New Mexico Lobos | 46c | 149.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd74…8afebacked New Mexico Lobos | 46c | 149.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…f827backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 54c | 91.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 55c | 90.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 53c | 83.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed New Mexico Lobos | 55c | 48.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 45c | 48.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New Mexico Lobos | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed New Mexico Lobos | 47c | 33.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked New Mexico Lobos | 44c | 22.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 56c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-1.5)this page
- New Mexico Lobos vs. Nevada Wolf PackNevada Wolf Pack won
- New Mexico Lobos vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 149.5Under won
- New Mexico Lobos vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 152.5Under won
- Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-1.5)Nevada Wolf Pack won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.