NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7b3391201a82d6d4abcf2c56a308e9b6d7b227382d0719316c398dcb91464fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Red Wings, Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Canucks | 69c | 1,560$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.4 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Red Wings | 31c | 1,029$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.78 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Red Wings | 31c | 426$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.94 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 33c | 240.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.44 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Canucks | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Canucks | 71c | 148.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…d223backed Red Wings | 31c | 142$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…3a36backed Red Wings | 31c | 140$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d5…331dbacked Red Wings | 31c | 136$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…7a8dbacked Canucks | 69c | 134$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a6…edc4backed Red Wings | 31c | 133$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…8b13backed Canucks | 69c | 131$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1371…2678backed Canucks | 69c | 122$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…4d55backed Canucks | 69c | 121$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Canucks | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Canucks | 67c | 88.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Red Wings | 30c | 67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…4024backed Red Wings | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Canucks | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Red Wings | 30c | 54.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 28c | 50.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Red Wings | 30c | 50.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Red Wings | 31c | 48.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Red Wings | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Canucks | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…6f11backed Canucks | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0863…647dbacked Canucks | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. CanucksRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.