Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7d6e5fecd82b6f9f7696b07b67d5326b9563dc1fbca768a8573dab67fb3bfe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,312 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 4c | 2,632$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 11c | 594.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 253.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 244.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 45c | 240.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.49 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 10c | 223.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 218.15$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 55c | 200.01$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 36c | 197.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.25 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 186.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.21 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 40c | 174.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.23 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 171.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…e288backed Yes | 76c | 165.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 35c | 142.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 126.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 66c | 120.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 116.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 62c | 96.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 86.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 77c | 82.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 80.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 34c | 77.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 76.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 39c | 75.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 73c | 75.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 69c | 71.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 69c | 69.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 37c | 57.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 57.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 32c | 56.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 31c | 56.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 65c | 53.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 29c | 51.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 33c | 47.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 44.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…25febacked Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 39c | 41.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x113d…a5e6backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcde…fb27backed Yes | 36c | 39.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…04e6backed No | 67c | 37.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 35.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…bfaebacked No | 69c | 33.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 33c | 30.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 71c | 27.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked No | 62c | 22.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 68c | 19.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 65c | 19.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…6bc1backed No | 69c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 17.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.