Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22f552594f66c281d58660af6367ddeaa6debb23b0f0c544cbbb98091212db9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,186 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 196.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 177.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 13c | 163.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 33c | 150.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 74c | 134.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 128.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 119.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 109.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b30…d326backed Yes | 25c | 100.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 88.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 83.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 82.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 27c | 80.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 24c | 75.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 73.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 33c | 73.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 28c | 68.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 66.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 64.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 64.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 30c | 58.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed Yes | 36c | 57.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 57.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 55.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…98aabacked Yes | 28c | 53.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No | 77c | 49.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 34c | 44.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…007fbacked Yes | 27c | 41.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x184a…bd44backed Yes | 25c | 40.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 78c | 33.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 29.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 73c | 24.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked No | 72c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 16.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.