Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7e511ed7462c0d087ccba556348738a10613ed2540608f74bce3eebdaf88044
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 61c | 439.21$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.49 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 265.37$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.62 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 10c | 200.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 198.91$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 45c | 118.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…6604backed No | 23c | 113.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 112.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 54c | 92.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 76c | 91.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 60c | 79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 75.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 46c | 72.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 58.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 63c | 52.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 54c | 49.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 40c | 48.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 56c | 45.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 78c | 44.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e3…0e11backed No | 35c | 42.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dd10backed Yes | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…b639backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 55c | 36.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…501dbacked No | 71c | 34.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…9a3abacked Yes | 74c | 33.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 55c | 32.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 53c | 32.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 55c | 28.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 53c | 27.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 58c | 25.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 58c | 25.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 59c | 21.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…5bd5backed No | 61c | 20.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 66c | 18.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…4a80backed Yes | 62c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.